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publications
Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping
Published in Scientific Reports, 2023
Forcing a system faster can make it tip in some cases and prevent it from tipping in others. Here, the reason is the peak synchronisation of oscillatory responses on different time scales.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Robinson, A., Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M. (2023). Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping. Scientific Reports, 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1
FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth
Published in Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
Simulates 100,000 years of high-resolution bedrock displacement in minutes on a single CPU, including lateral variations of the solid Earth. Compared to a 3D GIA model over the last glacial cycle, the error is below 5% on average and 16% at most.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Mitrovica, J. (2024). FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 5263–5290. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024
TransitionsInTimeseries.jl: A performant, extensible and reliable software for reproducible detection and prediction of transitions in timeseries
Published in Journal of Open Source Software, 2024
A Julia package to detect and predict transitions in time series.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Datseris, G. (2024). TransitionsInTimeseries.jl: A performant, extensible and reliable software for reproducible detection and prediction of transitions in timeseries. Journal of Open Source Software, 9, 6464. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.06464
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Published in Earth System Dynamics, 2025
PACCO is a conceptual model of climate and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with a physical basis. Ice-sheet dynamics and a delayed isostatic response are enough to produce resonance around 100 kyr.
Recommended citation: Pérez-Montero, S., Alvarez-Solas, J., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Moreno-Parada, D., Robinson, A., Montoya, M. (2025). A simple physical model for glacial cycles. Earth System Dynamics, 16, 915–937. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025
Highlighting processes underlying the stability and hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Preprint, EGUsphere, 2026
An adaptive forcing captures previously unidentified bifurcations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We describe the perimeter feedback, a positive feedback on the mass balance of marine ice sheets during both retreat and regrowth.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., Gutiérrez-González, L., Montoya, M. (2026). Highlighting processes underlying the stability and hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566
Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future
Published in The Cryosphere, 2026
Greenland’s hysteresis persists across almost the whole range from glacial to warmer climates. Besides the known warm threshold, there is a second one in cold climates, driven by ocean warming and marine ice-sheet instability.
Recommended citation: Gutiérrez-González, L., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Tabone, I., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Moreno-Parada, D., Montoya, M. (2026). Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future. The Cryosphere, 20, 1139–1162. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026
Exploring the Mid-Pleistocene transition with a simple physical model
Published in Climate of the Past, 2026
In the PACCO model, sustained regolith removal changes the period and amplitude of glacial cycles at the right time to match the Mid-Pleistocene transition.
Recommended citation: Pérez-Montero, S., Alvarez-Solas, J., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Moreno-Parada, D., Robinson, A., Montoya, M. (2026). Exploring the Mid-Pleistocene transition with a simple physical model. Climate of the Past, 22, 625–646. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-625-2026
Climate variability eases West-Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse and opens new retreat paths
Preprint, ESS Open Archive, 2026
Recommended citation: Blasco, J., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A. (2026). Climate variability eases West-Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse and opens new retreat paths. ESS Open Archive. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15004533/v1
Fast approximation of Antarctica’s GIA response to future ice melt with 3-D Earth structure
Preprint, EGUsphere, 2026
In coupled simulations of the next five centuries, FastIsostasy closely matches the 3-D GIA model Seakon and performs better than overly simplified GIA models.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Lucas, E. M., Gomez, N., Lloyd, A. J., Latychev, K., Mitrovica, J. X. (2026). Fast approximation of Antarctica's GIA response to future ice melt with 3-D Earth structure. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2640
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse
Published in Earth System Dynamics, 2026
Two interacting ice streams in northern Greenland alternate between fast flow and stagnation. For the same warming, the timing of collapse can differ by tens or hundreds of thousands of years.
Recommended citation: Kypke, K., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Ditlevsen, P. (2026). Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse. Earth System Dynamics, 17, 769–794. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026
Ensemble reconstruction of the Greenland Ice Sheet evolution through the last deglaciation
Preprint, EGUsphere, 2026
Evaluating 3,000 simulations against observations gives a constrained reconstruction of Greenland through the last deglaciation, with a contribution of −5.75 m of sea-level equivalent at the Last Glacial Maximum.
Recommended citation: Gutiérrez-González, L., Tabone, I., Robinson, A., Álvarez-Solas, J., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Grusdt, B., Montoya, M. (2026). Ensemble reconstruction of the Greenland Ice Sheet evolution through the last deglaciation. EGUsphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3331
Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections
Published in The Cryosphere, 2026
A simple way to represent tidal intrusion of ocean water upstream of the grounding line in continental-scale models. More intrusion means more grounding-zone retreat and a larger sea-level contribution.
Recommended citation: Juarez-Martinez, A., Robinson, A., Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M. (2026). Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections. The Cryosphere, 20, 5345–5363. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026
Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks
Published in Nature Geoscience, 2026
When warming outpaces bedrock rebound, the Recovery and Aurora basins (about 7 m of sea level together) can collapse at up to 0.5 °C less warming than equilibrium simulations suggest. West Antarctica shows no such effect.
Recommended citation: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Blasco, J., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M. (2026). Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02117-8
talks
Tutorial on Deep Learning
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Is West-Antarctica’s Tipping Point a Fixed Value?
Published:
The tipping point of a tipping element is often referring to its bifurcation point. For instance, publications mentioning the tipping point of the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (Lenton et al. 2008, Armstrong McKay et al. 2022) refer to the level of regional warming at which a large scale collapse arises in quasi-equilibrium simulations. This however omits the role of the forcing rate, which can imply a collapse at lower levels of regional warming, as I show through various simulations. This effect is commonly known as rate-induced tipping and needs to be assessed when talking about a tipping point which, to answer the question, cannot be understood as a single value (unlike a bifurcation point).